As winter continues its streak of cold and snow, sales activity in the Twin Cities housing market is moving along at a pace you'd expect for the season and at about the same pace as a year ago. Pending sales for the week ending January 30 came in at 650, down very slightly from the mark of 673 seen during the same week last year. Over the last three months, there have been 7,038 signed purchase agreements, up a sliver-sized 0.7 percent from a year ago.
Despite the tax credit being made available to current homeowners, new listing activity has yet to show any noticeable jump. The 1,584 new listings for the most recent reporting week represent a dip of 3.1 percent from a year ago. Total inventory of available homes is still down from last year by 16.5 percent.
In related news, Days on Market Until Sale is still dropping while the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale is still growing. While that's good news on both fronts for home sellers in general, different price points and neighborhoods are experiencing dramatically different market conditions.
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.
Tuesday February 2nd, 2010
Weekly Market Report 2.1.2010
From The Skinny
The January 2010 Twin Cities housing market has shaped up to be nearly identical to January 2009.
Pending sales are down slightly from a year ago, but not by much.
New listings are down slightly from a year ago, but not much.
Inventory is rising slowly, but not much.
After the roller coaster ride the local market has experienced over the last four years, perhaps "not by much" is a welcome respite.
There were 558 signed purchase agreements for the week ending January 23, down 2.3 percent from a year ago.
New listings posted 1,522 units, down 0.6 percent from a year ago.
The current inventory of active listings is 20,629, down 17.5 percent from a year ago.
The February 2010 Supply-Demand Ratio sits at 6.99, which means there are 6.99 homes available for each buyer. That's a drop of 8.5 percent from a year ago and the lowest February mark since 2006.
The first full week of reporting for the Twin Cities housing market is in and while there are a few "green shoots," it's becoming clear so far that the market won't see the same spectacular growth in sales it saw at the beginning of 2009.
There were 520 pending sales for the week ending January 9, down 1.7 percent from the same week in 2009. That's the seventh week of the last nine to see fewer sales than the prior year, a time period that coincides closely with the initial expiration date of the first-time home buyer tax credit. However, we’re still 21.2 percent higher than the pace in 2008 for that period.
As you likely know, the credit's been expanded to include a $6,500 incentive for buyers who have owned a home for five years of the last eight. Since we can safely assume that many of these buyers will need to sell their home first before buying a new one and receiving the credit, we can look to our new listings numbers to see how much effect the new credit is having. So far, it doesn't appear to be much.
Over the last three months, the number of new listings has been 11.7 percent behind the same period one year prior. With many looking for continued "seedlings" of hope in the local housing market, this isn't welcome news. As always, we'll be keeping a close eye on things and reporting back what we see.
The January 2010 Housing Supply Outlook just hit the internetz. As usual, here's some quick takeaways on key market conditions.
5. Its a magic number. The last time there was only 5.0 months of supply or less in the Twin Cities housing market, the month was March of 2006. George Bush was president, Kanye West was known more for his talent than his eccentricities and the market was on the cusp of a 24-month slide in home sales and prices. Flash forward to January 2010, and we're back down to 5.0 months of supply.
The biggest drops in supply can be found the lower price ranges, where homes are selling quickly. For perspective, there's only 2.6 months of supply under $120,000, while there's 30.2 months of supply above $1 million.
Home prices are still soft across the board, but the largest declines in price in 2009 can be found in the condominium segment, where the average sales price for the year was 17.1 percent lower than in 2008.
The last week of 2009 found the Twin Cities housing market singing "Auld Lang Syne" and taking a breather. For the first time in four years, the active listing inventory dropped below 20,000. Chiming in the New Year at 18,980, inventory is at its lowest point since April 2005 and is 22 percent below last year at this time. Also of note, January's Supply-Demand Ratio of 6.69 houses per buyer is 20.6 percent behind a year ago.
New listings for the week ending December 26 dropped 18.9 percent from last year to 446. The 392 purchase agreements for the week were up a merry 53.1 percent above the previous year; while a significant jump, this reflects a small sample size.
We expect 2010 to begin slowly as car starting becomes more important than house hunting during the frigid conditions we're presently experiencing in the metro area.
The post-Thanksgiving bump is in effect for the Twin Cities housing market. The week ending December 5 saw pending sales swing upward from the previous week by 152 to settle at 551. This is 7.7 percent less than last year at this time, marking the third week of the last four to post pending sales numbers lower than a year ago. The aftermath of the tax credit's initial expiration date is combining with the typical holiday slowdown to bring sales down.
Two other important metrics:
Months Supply of Inventory – At 5.7, this is the lowest MSI in more than two years and a full 32.9 percent below last year. This bodes well for sellers in general, but the higher price ranges are still buyer's markets.
Housing Affordability Index – At 207 and improving, this is welcome news. This means that the average family income in the Twin Cities region is 207 percent of what it takes to qualify to purchase the median priced home.
Extremely heavy buyer activity and shrinking inventory led to strengthening Twin Cities home prices in November.
The November median sales price of $170,000 was a slight increase from October—a rare occurrence in this month that typically marks the beginning of a temporary winter price swoon. This mark is 2.9 percent behind last October, the lowest year-over-year price decline in more than two years.
This is the surest sign we've seen yet that we're on recovery road. We've seen sales growing for almost a year and a half, and prices are starting to reflect that, particularly in the lower price ranges.
The median sales price of traditional homes (excluding foreclosures and short sales) in November was $190,000, down 15.6 percent from a year ago. Since a heavy share of buyers in November were likely first-timers who typically buy in the more affordable price ranges, prices in the traditional segment have been weighted downward. Foreclosures posted a November figure of $127,500, up 2.0 percent from a year ago, while short sales prices were at $143,500, down 15.6 percent from a year ago.
There were 2,987 signed purchase agreements in November, a big dip from October due to seasonal trends and to the tax credit's initial expiration date. That's still up 10.2 percent from a year ago—the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year increases in pending sales. Closed sales posted a whopping 67.0 percent jump from a year ago, again due to the tax credit.
The Months Supply of Inventory has dropped to 5.7 months, the lowest mark since April 2006. Traditional homes have 7.6 months of supply, foreclosures have 1.4 months and short sales have 12.8 months.
Supply is dropping in the traditional and foreclosure markets. Short sale supply is stagnant because of the headaches involved in purchasing them. The process needs to improve, but industry and government efforts that are coming soon could help.
Tuesday December 8th, 2009
Weekly Market Report 12.07.2009
From The Skinny
The local housing market experienced the traditional Turkey Day drop off for the week ending November 28 as Twin Citizens focused more on turkey and stuffing than purchase agreements and closing dates.
Even taking into account the expected holiday drop, market activity in the last few weeks has slowed considerably from the breakneck pace we saw during the first 10 months of the year, likely due to the passing of the home buyer tax credit’s initial deadline. There were 5.9 percent fewer pending sales compared to the same week in 2008. That’s only the second week of year-over-year decrease in all of 2009 (the first was two weeks earlier).
Now for the good news: Days on Market before Sale dropped 14.5 percent to 127, and the Percentage of Original List Price trended positive over last year to 94.3. These two metrics should shore up sellers who are weathering the current economic storm.
When compared to the previous week's dive, pending sales held strong during a time of typical seasonal swoon. For the week ending November 21, there were 604 purchase agreements, a 5.2 percent increase over the same week in 2008 and the first time in a month not to show a week-over-week plunge in sales activity.
Although sales are up over last year, they have slowed considerably from October's tax credit gold rush. With the winter season before us, sales will likely continue their respite into 2010.
